MLB 2018 Season Predictions Results

Before the 2018 MLB season, I made my Fearless Forecast predictions. The predictions were made on our podcast, Two Old Guys Drinking Beer (TOGDB). You can check them out at this link, TOGDB - Season 2 Episode 12 at the 01:10 mark. Here is an accounting of those predictions and a recap of the season. 

A summary of those predictions shows that I got three of the six division races correct for 50%. I correctly predicted seven of the ten playoff teams for 70%. The Braves, Brewers, and Athletics fooled me. I also correctly predicted 50% of the World Series teams, the Dodgers, but I did not correctly pick the WS winner.

A few notes on the regular season. For the first time in MLB history, there were more strikeouts than hits. The AL East had two teams that posted 100 or more wins (Boston & NYY) and a team with over 100 losses (Baltimore). The AL Central had two teams with 100 or more losses (Chicago White Sox & KC). Baltimore finished 61 games out of first place in the AL East after losing 115 games. The NL Central (Chicago & Milwaukee) and NL West (LA Dodgers & Colorado) divisions both ended in a tie that required a one-game playoff. That left the wildcard and NLDS home field teams undecided until after those games. 

Here are my picks vs actual results: (correct picks are in bold)

• NL East pick Washington Nationals. Actual winner Atlanta Braves.
• NL Central pick Chicago Cubs. Actual winner Milwaukee Brewers
• NL West pick LA Dodgers. Actual winner LA Dodgers
• NL Wildcard picks St. Louis Cardinals & Colorado Rockies. Actual winners Chicago Cubs & Colorado Rockies

• AL East pick NY Yankees. Actual winner Boston Red Sox
• AL Central pick Cleveland Indians. Actual winner Cleveland Indians
• AL West pick Houston Astros. Actual winner Houston Astros
• AL Wildcard picks Boston Red Sox & LA Angels. Actual winners NY Yankees & Oakland A's.

• NLDS picks Washington Nationals & LA Dodgers. Actual winners Milwaukee Brewers & LA Dodgers 
• NLCS pick LA Dodgers. Actual winner LA Dodgers

• ALDS picks Houston Astros & NY Yankees. Actual winners Houston Astros & Boston Red Sox
• ALCS pick Houston Astros. Actual winner Boston Red Sox

• World Series pick Houston Astros. Actual winner Boston Red Sox

Now the champion BoSox get to celebrate for a year. The other 29 teams are in wait til next year mode. Spring training starts in mid-February 2019.

wjh

Found Guilty & Sick

Have you noticed how sick people get when they are indicted? If they are actually convicted, the maladies become terminal. Courts are probably too lenient on defendants who claim illness. I'm not sure what judges can do to correct this. Two very recent cases bring this to the forefront. 

About two or three years ago Bill Cosby was still performing. He was doing live concerts and TV appearances. He was still animated and active. During his recent sexual assault trial, he appeared as an old blind man. A shuffle to his walk, holding the arm of an aide, and often seen with a cane. He has appeared even frailer and blinder since his conviction. Coincidently, at his sentencing, his lawyers asked that he be able to serve his sentence by house arrest rather than in prison. Their reasoning was that Cosby is an old blind man. He is no longer a threat to society. Of course, if you drug your victims you don't need to be very spry or have 20/20 vision. Besides, prison is just as much a punishment for past illegal actions as it is to protect society. 

The second even more recent case is that of Paul Manafort. Just this summer during his

trial he was the picture of health. Dressed in expensive custom-made suits, perfect haircut, and a big smile, he would stride confidently into court. Now just a few days ago he had to be wheeled into court in a wheelchair wearing a jail jumpsuit and only one shoe. He was also much grayer. I assume they don't issue Grecian Formula 44 in prison. Again, his lawyers say he is in deteriorating health and needs to be transferred to another prison facility. 

Of course, this behavior is all to envoke sympathy for the defendant or prisoner. In Cosby's case, it was first to influence the jury then the judge. Manafort won't be sentenced until February 2019. He is working the health angle now in hopes of influencing the judge to both a lighter sentence and a cushy white collar prison facility with excellent health facilities. 

My conclusion is that courthouses and jails are hazardous to our health. Perhaps the CDC and EPA should look into this. 

These two men are just the most recent example of court/jail induced health issues. They are by no means the first or the last to try this tactic. Almost all criminals profess their innocence. It also seems they develop health issues. Is there a doctor in the (court)house?

wjh

The Shortest Distance

The shortest distance between two points is a straight line. 

Or is it? Apparently not in the FedEx universe. I had an electronic device that needed to be repaired. The repair company sent me the packaging and prepaid FedEx label to return the device in. The box was sent from the Chicago area to me in the DFW area. It traveled from:

1. Schaumburg, IL.
2. Memphis, TN
3. Dallas, TX
4. Irving, TX
5. My front door

Not too convoluted a route considering Memphis is FedEx's main hub.

I packed up the device and took it to a nearby FedEx office in Colleyville, TX. The destination was Grapevine, TX. Those two towns border each other so of course, the FedEx route was:

1. Colleyville, TX
2. Irving, TX
3. Dallas, TX
4. Memphis, TN
5. Ft. Worth, TX
6. Irving, TX
7. Grapevine, TX (delivered)

A little more involved. Just for fun, I looked on Google Maps. The FedEx store in Colleyville is about 12 miles (15 minutes) from the repair location. So of course, the route via Memphis and several other cities makes perfect sense.

The DFW and Memphis airports are about 480 miles apart, probably a little less as the crow flies. Let's say that's at least 900 miles the package travels roundtrip not counting the ground travel on both ends of the flight. That seems like about 888 miles farther than necessary. 

I wonder how the device will be returned to me. I checked and I live 13.9 miles (17 minutes) from the repair company location. I'm guessing Memphis and much of North Texas will again be involved. 

I'm pretty sure that except for the originator and delivery drivers, no human eyes ever look at the shipping label. Ain't technology and algorithms great? 

wjh

Fractured Instructions

We all buy stuff that comes with instructions. If you're like me, you usually ignore them. Still, there are times when you just have to check the instruction pamphlet. If the product is made in Asia, the instructions can be frustrating &/or hilarious. Here are a few examples:

• For a pair of bicycle gloves (made in China). Not so much actual instructions, but pointing out the features:
• SBR materials can protect your finger joints and wrists much more better.
• Skid-proof and hard-wearing materials for more security and comfortable of ride.
• Silica gel printing technology for additional friction force and reducing the probability of skipping handlebars.
• Thickening palm pad for reducing hand shock on bump road effectively.
• Breathable holes design for additional heat release function.
• Sweat absorbent materials for absorbing more sweat from sports.
• Velcro using for fixing and adjusting tightness adds more sense of security. 
• Tailor in three dimensional.
• For a dental pick (Made in China):
• Please rinse with mild water if there is a slight oral bleeding during use.
• Please keep this manual in a safe place and away from children. 
• A fitness tracker:
• Please fit the adjusting holes according to your wrist size , and then do up the wristband buckle ;
• Please ensure the band has enough battery at your first time using it.
• In connected state , click the "Looking for band" option , the band will vibrate to cause your attention.
• Note: The band will track sleeping status only when you wore it during your sleep.
• A bluetooth headset:
• The light indicator will turn into red when charging.
• The red light indicator goes out and turn into green when charging completed.

I'm not sure if these Asian companies use a digital translator or someone who has studied English for one semester or less. Either way, it seems like there is a market for translators who actually speak the language. 

I feel certain that there will be additional posts on this theme.

wjh 

A Star Is Born - 2018

The latest version of A Star Is Born recently hit the theaters. This is the fourth remake of the film. First released in 1937 starring Fredric March and Janet Gaynor, remade in 1954 starring James Mason and Judy Garland. Then again in 1976 with Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson. Although details differ among the films, the main plot is that an established star takes an unknown under his wing and falls in love. The talented newcomer's career then eclipses the mentor. This 2018 version stars Bradley Cooper as the established star and Lady Gaga as the new talent who he falls in love with and gives her a start in the music business. 

Lady Gaga's character's, Ally, career then takes off as Bradly Cooper's character, Jackson Maine, slides into alcohol and drug oblivion. Cooper's choice of the Jackson Maine name is an acknowledgment to the first two versions of the film where the male character was named Norman Maine. In the '76 version, Kris Kristofferson was named John Norman Howard. 

Besides starring in, Bradley Cooper directed, co-produced, and co-wrote the film. We knew that Cooper could act and Lady Gaga could sing. It turns out that Cooper can also sing and Gaga can also act. The music scenes were actual live performances, no lip-syncing. 

There are some humorous scenes too, the ones in the drag bar are especially fun. There are also several good supporting performances. Sam Elliott plays Bobby, Jacksons older brother and manager. It is a contentious relationship. Dave Chappelle is an old friend and retired musician. The relationship and background were glossed over and not developed. More like an unnecessary side story except for setting up one event in Jackson and Ally's relationship. Andrew Dice Clay does a good job as Ally's father. A limo driver who believes he had more talent than Sinatra but just didn't get a break. The rest of the supporting cast is also good. Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real appear as Maine's backup band. Lukas Nelson is Willie's son. 

The music may be the best part of the music. Bradley, Lady Gaga, and Lukas Nelson all contributed original songs to the film. 

If you are of a certain age or a film buff, you know this story well. No real surprises, no car chases, no violence. The script is not perfect but more than serviceable. Mostly just good acting and good music. That should be enough. I rate this movie an A-. Hope you give it a look and enjoy it. 

wjh

Very Random Thoughts - September 2018

• According to the announcers, every game is fully populated with the best players ever. It doesn't matter which sport, amateur or pro.
• College football really needs to stop these games where Big Time Major University (BTMU) plays West South Middle Community College (WSMCC). The games are boring routs and people get injured. 
• Does it make any sense that MLB teams play the first 135 games with a 25 man roster then get to have a 40 man roster for the last 25 or so games? If anything, it should be the other way around, 40 to start and 25 after April.
• I find it very difficult to be tolerant of those who are intolerant. It's a conundrum.
• Is there such a thing as low holy days?
• Once again we have dozens of TV weather and news folks standing outside during hurricane Florence so we can see that it is rainy and windy. Useless hyperbole. 
• I no longer want the president to be older than I am. The same goes for those in Congress.
• I know Amazon has great technology but it seems the algorithm that chooses the shipping box size is less than efficient. The box is often two, three, four times larger than needed. 
• Back in the old days you could slide across the car front seat and get out or in at the curb. No opening a car door into traffic.
• The other big advantage of bench seats was your girlfriend could sit right next to you. You could also squeeze four or five folks in the front seat when necessary.
• I think every car company has at least one J.D. Power 
  
  excellence award for something. A very exclusive award.
• Has anyone actually bought a garage at a garage sale? 
• Why is there a block in the back penalty on almost every punt and kickoff return play? 
• The question came up, why do mosquitoes always bite the ankles? 
• Have we finally reached the saturation point on pumpkin spice flavored stuff? More items, longer season every year.
• Apparently, people in Washington DC are incapable of a simple yes or no answers. The longer and more convoluted the answer, or non-answer, the better.

wjh