#BeBest

First Lady Melania Trump has kicked off her BE BEST campaign. The goals are described as:

The mission of BE BEST is to focus on some of the major issues facing children today, with the goal of encouraging children to BE BEST in their individual paths, while also teaching them the importance of social, emotional, and physical health. BE BEST will concentrate on three main pillars: well-being, social media use, and opioid abuse. 

 Part of the initiative is to deal with social media, to help children avoid negative social media interaction. The social media section of the campaign announcement says:

When children learn positive online behaviors early-on, social media can be used in productive ways and can effect positive change. Mrs. Trump believes that children should be both seen and heard, and it is our responsibility as adults to educate and reinforce to them that when they are using their voices—whether verbally or online—they must choose their words wisely and speak with respect and compassion.

Does anyone else find it ironic that Melania is advocating online respect and compassion? It would seem like she has a lot of work to do at home. I don't mean with Barron, I'm referring to her hubby Donald. He is one of the least respectful, most impolite, least compassionate, biggest bullies on the internet. With over 50 million Twitter followers, he has a much bigger impact on social media behavior than Melania will ever have. Adult examples of good behavior matter. So do examples of bad behavior. 

This is a good cause and I wish Melania much success. Her biggest challenge appears to be with one of those she shares the White House residence quarters with. Again, I don't mean Barron. 

For her sake and the sake of her initiative, she probably should have picked a different objective. I fear this one will forever be stigmatized and undermined by Donald's antics. 

Good luck Melania.

wjh

Very Random Thoughts - April 2018

• Reflecting on the MLK assassination 50th anniversary, we should have made more progress by now.
• Remember phone party lines? Did you ever listen in?
• Atomic seems to still be the goto name for those late night product commercials. The latest is an Atomic Bulletproof Pad that you can slip into a backpack, briefcase, or (very big) handbag. Only $99 plus S&H. I'm not sure what part of it is atomic but be careful of radioactive exposure. 
•  Seems about every other week we get a new recommendation about consumption of coffee/caffeine, alcohol or something else. Consume more or less to increase or decrease your health and life expectancy.
• Being an inveterate night owl and insomniac, I see a lot of old TV reruns in the wee hours. Some series hold up pretty well and some are laughable. Probably just like today's TV. 
• It is very hard to remember the names and exact locations of the bars and restaurants I frequented in the 70's. Perhaps alcohol was involved. 
• Whatever happened to Lifebuoy soap? I grew up with that orange (officially coral) block in the shower. The fact that it contained toxic phenol/carbolic acid may have hastened its demise.
• Same deal with Lavoris mouthwash. The original cinnamon flavor would pucker you up.  
• So, I take two vitamins a day, both at the same time. The package states there is an even number in the bottle. I get to the end and there is one left. What do you think, did I get one more or one less than advertised?
• When a page in a document or book says "Page intentionally left blank" it no longer is.
• Sorry, I don't care that the UK royal family had another baby. Apparently, a lot of folks do. 
• A standing ovation is no longer anything special. Every performer now gets one for just coming on stage. 
• How many people comment on a Facebook post without really reading it? Lots.
• There are a ton of talent competition shows on TV like The Voice, American Idol, America's Got Talent, etc. Do we really need more singers, dancers, jugglers...
• Not a joke, there is now an American Cornhole League (ACL) and it is on ESPN. The napping league is coming next. 
• Shouldn't childproof lids actually be called old proof lids? Every little kid can open them in five seconds and I can't.
• Related, sometimes the guy in charge of gluing the foil tops on things like yogurt containers gets carried away. Then the top comes off in several small pieces. 

wjh

Toys Я Us

The end of an era. The Toys Я Us company is bankrupt and going out of business. Many stores have already closed. Those remaining are in clearance mode, reduced prices and all sales final. 

It's sad because I don't know of any toys only stores that are still in business. They have been run out of business by the big box discount stores like Walmart and Target and by the online retailers like Amazon. Of course, Toys Я Us a few years earlier contributed to the demise of the independent and smaller toy store chains. Remember K·B Toys in the malls? There were others too. Way back when I was a kid, I remember my Mom taking me to the F.A.O. Schwarz store in Manhatten, a magical place. 

Over the years, I spent a lot of time at Toys Я Us. There were several kids spread over several years. Of course, there were the birthday and Christmas visits. There were also the occasional visits for no particular reason with the kids. Those were actually the most fun. No holiday crowds, no pressure to get the hot toy of the season, just a stroll through a giant toy store with a kid or two. The only pressure was to limit the damage to the bank account. It's tough to limit the kids to that preset limit of one toy or a specific dollar amount. You know the scenario. You set a $20 limit and they find the perfect $18 toy. Then they can't find anything for $2 so you give in and get the $8 gotta have toy. Adjust those amounts for inflation if you or your kids are younger than me or mine.

I remember a couple of Christmas Eves when I was trying to find that last minute gift or fill the stockings. The stores looked like a tornado had hit. Empty shelves, toys in the aisles, long checkout lines, and very frazzled shoppers and employees. One year I was in the local Toys Я Us late on a December 24th. It was part of my yearly procrastination plan at the time. The store was a wreck and of course, there were none of the hot toys to be found. I had a few minor toys in my cart when an announcement came over the PA. They had just gotten in a small shipment of one of the popular toys. We were instructed to go to a specific location in the store in 10 minutes. Luckily, it was so late that there weren't that many customers in the store. I followed the instructions and was able to score one of the toys. I'll be honest, I don't remember exactly what it was. It was something to do with video games. The toy was a hit Christmas morning but I think it was mostly forgotten in a few weeks. Typical toy lifespan. 

Look, buying toys on Amazon is probably cheaper and more convenient. They get delivered right to your door. Walmart and Target are cheap too plus you can also get some bread, milk, a gun, shampoo, and underwear at the same time.

Another impact of the Toys Я Us demise will be the hundreds of big box stores that will now be vacant. A double hit in some locations if there was also a Babies Я Us store. I don't know about where you live, but we don't need any additional empty storefronts here. There is also the loss of local taxes on sales and the real estate and the loss of jobs.

What we should mourn is that the next generation of kids won't get to wander the aisles of a giant toy store. They won't get to feel that stuffed toy, try out that fire truck, ride a scooter down the aisles, or play the display video games. It's one less place for parents and more importantly grandparents to take the little ones to. 

Who knows what will come next. Will someone come up with a new improved Toys Я Us to take their place? Do the current kids of the internet generation care? 

Toys Я Us was founded in 1948 and apparently expires in 2018, a 70-year run. It's the end of an era in toys and I'm not sure that is a good thing. Goodbye Geoffrey.

wjh

A Higher Loyalty

This book by former FBI Director James Comey received much hype. It was officially released on Tuesday, April 17, 2018. Excerpts and advanced copies began trickling out the previous Thursday and Friday. James Comey was also interviewed at length on Sunday the 15th. Of course, the news accounts and interview concentrated on the more salacious and sensational sections and quotes from the book. Especially those relating to President Trump. For all the pundits saying the book included/leaked classified information, I'll point out that it was submitted to the FBI for review prior to publication. 

This is my review of the book. I read the whole thing, not just the juicy parts. I am always amazed at how many pundits and talking heads are quick to criticise or praise a book based entirely on a single passage or two. Often they admittedly have not read the book and even brag that they will not read it. 

The preface concentrates on Comey's view of ethics and comes off a little preachy. My main take on the introduction is his disdain for the toxic partisanship of Washington, Congress in particular. 

This is an autobiography and not simply an account of his dealings with Trump. Although not strictly chronological, the book basically starts in Comey's youth and proceeds through school and his career. From grocery store stock boy through college, clerking, private law, US Attorney office stints, Deputy Attorney General, private law again, and finally FBI Director. He does harken back to defining events in his youth when discussing events in his professional life. 

Comey and his younger brother endured a home invasion by who was thought to be a serial rapist. Noone wound up physically hurt but it was obviously a traumatic experience. He was a self-admitted nerd in high school. Despite his height, he did not play basketball or other sports. He says he was bullied but when he got to college (William & Mary) he joined a group that bullied an outsider. One of his youth mentors and examples was a grocery store manager when Comey was a stock boy. He referred back to him several times.

After law school and a brief stint at a law firm, Comey went to work at the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York office. Rudy Guiliani was the US Attorney. Comey is not complimentary of Guiliani or his dictatorial and ego-driven management style. Comey worked on some Mafia cases while there. 

He next went to the Virginia US Attorney's Office. It was then back to New York as the US Attorney. While there the Martha Stewart case was prosecuted. He next went to Washington as the Deputy Attorney General to Attorney General John Ashcroft, appointed by George W. Bush. During that stint, he was involved with the Scooter Libby case, the NSA illegal spying crisis, the Abu Ghraib prison incident, and the waterboarding issue. He butted heads with Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice and other White House hardliners who were in favor of illegal spying and torture. 

After a returning to private practice for a few years, he was tapped by Barack Obama to head the FBI. Of course, we are familiar with some of the big cases during his tenure. Those include the Ferguson, MO. police shooting, the iPhone data encryption issues, and of course the Clinton email fiasco. 

Based on Comey's view and account of the Clinton email case, the FBI and he were put into an untenable situation. Investigating a presidential candidate in an election year is tricky. The Bureau doesn't want to influence the election, yet they also don't want crimes and criminals to get off the hook. Contrary to popular opinion, there are no special rules or policies about conducting investigations during an election year. There are some unwritten precedents that they try not to influence an election. I won't recount that whole mess, but Comey says in retrospect he would not substantially change his handling of the situation. He contends that the Department of Justice and Attorney General Loretta Lynch abdicated their involvement in the investigation. The fact that he pissed off first the Republicans and then the Democrats should be an indication that although you may not agree with him it is hard to complain about bias.  

Then we come to Trump's election and the beginning of the end for Comey. They first met before the inauguration. Comey was part of the intelligence briefing at Trump Tower about Russian interference in the election and then afterward in a meeting with just the two of them, disclosed the Steele dossier. During the initial intelligence briefing, Trump was mainly concerned that there was no evidence that Russia had an effect on the vote. Then his team began planning for a press release. 

For the most part, the details in the book match what has been reported by other sources. There were no big surprises although there were some additional detail plus the thinking behind the decisions. 

Overall I enjoyed the book. I found it an easy read. Although many of the events in the book are well known and documented, the view from an insider is helpful. As is the case in most autobiographies, the author, Comey in this case, comes off somewhat better and more altruistic than his adversaries. I would bet that he is not quite as altruistic as depicted and some he butted heads with are not quite as bad.    

I doubt that in our fractured and partisan times that many people will change their views and beliefs about Comey, Trump, Clinton or any of the other characters or events in the book. One thing I can say with certainty. You will not get a good sense of the book by listening to the talking heads on TV from either side of the political spectrum. 

I recommend giving it a read and making up your own mind. 

wjh

Voter Fraud

The Republicans are quick to yell "Voter Fraud" at every turn. They accuse Democrats of importing, encouraging and even paying people to vote illegally. Trump continues to claim there were three million illegal votes in California in the 2016 election. That would have amounted to about 20% of the total popular vote in the state. 

Despite study after study that has determined that real voter fraud is a minuscule problem, the Republicans continue to make it more difficult to vote, especially for minorities. They pass strict voter ID laws, staff minority poll sites with fewer workers and voting machines, aggressively prosecute the very few illegal minority voters and any other measure they can think of. That doesn't even include the gerrymandering that dilutes the Democratic and minority's votes. In my mind, those actions rise to the definition of voter fraud.

Now, we have more direct evidence of Republican voter fraud. Kris Koback, Kansas Secretary of State, has been held in contempt of court in a voter ID case. As Secretary of State, he is the chief voting official in the state. He failed to follow the court's instructions that would have allowed more people to vote. That is illegal voter discrimination. Some may remember that Kobach was the leader of Trump's ill-fated Voter Integrity Panel. To him and Trump, every voter who doesn't vote for Trump or Republicans is a potential illegal voter.

Closer to home, we have Justice of the Peace Russ Casey who just plead guilty to forging signatures on his petition to appear on the March 2018 ballot. That is intentional voter fraud by an elected official who was also part of the justice system. He was sentenced to five years probation and forced to resign.  

That brings up the inequality in the punishment for similar offenses. Recently, a local woman, Rosa Ortega, was sentenced to eight years in prison for voting. She is not a US citizen. More egregious is the case of Crystal Mason. A Texas and US citizen who was sentenced to five years in prison for voting. She was a convicted felon who had been released from prison but was still under supervision. She did not know she couldn't vote. Ortega is Hispanic, Mason is Black. Wonder if that figured into the severity of the sentences? Mason was sentenced by a judge in the same Tarrant County that gave Casey probation. 

Yes, real voter fraud should be pursued and prosecuted. Prosecuted and punished fairly. An elected official who forges signatures on official documents seems far worse than an individual woman who mistakenly voted. One a white Republican male, the other a Black woman. You figure out who got the worst end of our justice system.

The real threats to our elections are Russian interference, fake news, gerrymandering, and apathy. It is not the very occasional illegal vote.

wjh  

MLB Baseball Predictions - 2018

2018 MLB Predictions

These predictions were written prior to the start of the season and were broadcast on the Two Old Guys Drinking Beer podcast, Season 2 episode 12, on 04/12/2018. The text was originally meant to be my notes for the podcast so they may be somewhat cryptic and incomplete. Nevertheless, my picks are now additionally documented so there is evidence for October when the mocking will commence.

The numbering and bullets failed to transfer correctly but it is still readable. To fix it would require going into the HTML code or retyping much of it. Kind of a pisser since both the original document and this blog are Google apps.

My Fearless Forecasts picks for the 2018 baseball season. I got some right and many wrong in 2017. Some teams seem to be a lock for a division title and a place in the playoffs. Others seem destined to be eliminated early and finish in the cellar. It’s the teams in the middle that are intriguing. Will a rookie have a breakout year, will a free agent excel or fizzle, will a star suffer a season-ending injury? So many things to go right or wrong. Cliché warning - That’s why they play the games. So, on with the picks.

National League

East Division

1. Washington Nationals - Last chance, Harper and other stars free agents at end of season. Scherzer & Strasburg. Maybe 100 wins. Weak division.
2. Atlanta Braves - A little hopeful. Still young and rebuilding. A .500 season would be good.
3. New York Mets - Terrible injury riddled 2017. No major roster changes. Healthy pitchers and depth a problem.
4. Philadelphia Phillies - Rebuilding, still look a couple of years away. Could break through if a couple of youngsters excel.
5. Miami Marlins - Complete player dump & rebuilding mode. Weak hitting and pitching. Probably 100 losses. Jeter in charge.

Central Division

1. Chicago Cubs - Solid lineup. Some new pitchers, starting and bullpen. Lost Arrieta but signed Darvish. Should be a net gain.
2. St. Louis Cardinals - Could win division if Cubs falter, otherwise a wildcard team.
3. Milwaukee Brewers - Pitching a ?. If good, will be wildcard contender
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Sinking. McCutchen gone. Starting to rebuild.
5. Cincinnati Reds - Young and rising. Could move to 4th.

West Division

1. Los Angeles Dodgers - Still loaded and young, right around 100 wins again. A couple of middle bullpen questions. A toss-up between West & Central for strongest NL division.
2. Colorado Rockies - Flip a coin between Rockies & D-backs for 2nd & 3rd. Both could again make the playoffs as wildcards. Maybe a tick better than 2017.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - Same as above. Strong pitching (Greinke
4. San Francisco Giants - Added Evan Longoria (32) and Andrew McCutchen. Both good players, but past their prime. Bumgarner out 6-8 weeks with fractured hand.
5. San Diego Padres - Still not ready for prime time although the farm system has gotten better.

American League

East Division

1. New York Yankees - Loaded. Stanton & Judge, the new Bam Brothers. Sonny Gray for the whole season.
2. Boston Red Sox - No big additions or improvements, only beat Yankees by 2 games last season. Chris Sale, can David Price come back.
3. Baltimore Orioles - No starting pitching but never count out Buck.
4. Toronto Blue Jays - No big changes. One last try for this roster.
5. Tampa Bay Rays - Longoria gone, even lower payroll. Maybe finally a new stadium in Ybor City in the works.

Central Division

1. Cleveland Indians - Another 100 win season. Loaded pitching staff (Kluber, Carrasco). Weak division.
2. Minnesota Twins - Hoping for another wild card spot. Santana out for 12 weeks will hurt.
3. Chicago White Sox - Young and improving, but not yet.
4. Kansas City Royals - Early rebuilding period.
5. Detroit Tigers - Early rebuilding. Verlander and Kinsler gone.

West Division

1. Houston Astros - Young and talented. Maybe 100 wins in what could be the toughest division. MVP Altuve. Everyone back. Verlander for entire season. Strong starting pitching, maybe best in MLB (Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, Cole, Morton)
2. LA Angels of Anaheim - Othani? Added Kinsler
3. Texas Rangers - No big changes. Gallo full-time 1st base. DeShields CF & leadoff. Left field? Calhoun sent to minors. Pitching? 6 man rotation, 5+ rotation, closer, Lincicum. Maybe wishful thinking, Rangers could lose 90+ games.
4. Seattle Mariners - No big changes. Pitching a question.
5. Oakland A’s - Young but some talent. No money, no big names, crappy stadium.

Playoffs

National League

• East - Nationals
• Central - Cubs
• West - Dodgers
• Wild Cards - Rockies, Cardinals

• NLDS - Nationals, Dodgers
• NLCS - Dodgers

American League

• East - Yankees
• Central - Indians
• West - Astros
• Wild Cards - Red Sox, Angels

• ALDS - Yankees, Astros
• ALCS - Astros

World Series

• Astros, Dodgers - Astros in 7

wjh

Very Random Thoughts - March 2018

• Non-rappers should never try to rap. Especially white politicians. Here is why.
• Why don't we have anymore ½ hour TV drama shows? The only ½ hour shows now are comedies. The hour-long dramas today still only have about a ½ hour of content. 
• Why do judges still wear robes? What are they wearing or not wearing under those robes?
• Irony: Kevin Nunes is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. 
• I am amazed at what I can't remember from moment to moment. 
• Last chance hardly ever really is.
• So-called Devout Christians are often not either.
• How come my local Kroger produce section doesn't look anything like the one on the TV ads?
• Fastest growing... usually means they were so small that adding a couple of viewers or customers translates into a large percentage growth. Mostly marketing BS.
• When folks dictate their texts, tweets, facebook posts, etc., they really should look to see what got transcribed before sending. It is often unintelligible. 
• If humans (Homo Sapiens) have an immortal soul made in God's image, did Neanderthals too? How about other Homo species? We did interbreed with them. 
• When a company or person says that they deleted computer data, emails, analytics, etc. don't believe it. The data may actually be deleted from one place but for sure there are several other copies.
• I think the world would be a better and more honest place without nondisclosure agreements? 
• How much actual news reporting is there on the alleged NEWS channels vs opinion and analysis?
• Opinions and beliefs are not proof or facts.
• Why are government office holders referred to as the Honorable when so many of them aren't.
• One person's common sense is another person's idiocy.
• Along the same line, common sense is often not common or sense.
• I wish TV commercials would stop using phone tones. Every time they beep, pop, ring, etc. I reach for my phone. 
• OK fantasy sports folks. Do you root for your fantasy players or your favorite team when there is a conflict? No fair to say a win for the home team but a great game for the fantasy players. Sometimes they are mutually exclusive. My solution is to not play fantasy sports, therefore no conflict.
• Why is elite pronounced eleet instead of elight?
• During the NCAA basketball tournament, one of the announcers referred to a player as having turf toe. Shouldn't that be court toe for basketball?
• Every once in awhile, I see an old 70's TV show to remind me how bad the wardrobes were back then.

wjh